This report was completed in August 2011 and is available immediately. A prospectus and order form can be downloaded here.

The background to this report

The market dynamics of many Asian countries are in stark contrast to those in the West. In spite of the more positive outlook for paper demand in many emerging markets, it is dangerous to use low per capita consumption as a basis for forecasting. First and foremost, this approach ignores the still huge gaps between rich and poor in places like China and India. Secondly, emerging markets are similarly exposed to the new technologies which are having such a dramatic impact on paper consumption in the developed world.

The structure and size of the pulp and paper industries in Asian countries vary widely, as do the drivers of paper production. As such, it is dangerous to generalise when referring to emerging markets. Much of the growth in Chinese paper demand over the past ten years has been at the expense of demand in other Asian countries. Moreover, over-investment in Chinese production capacity has had a huge impact on trade flows within Asia as well as with Western markets. However, the new decade marks a new phase of development in China's economy, and that of its paper industry.

This report is aimed specifically at fine paper producers and consumers, pulp suppliers, and those companies operating along the supply chains in both Western and emerging markets. It contains historical supply and demand data, trade data, and makes five year forecasts for the key markets of Japan, China, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and the more periphal markets such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and Philippines. The report also looks at the prospects for Asian exports in light of the demand outlook in both mature and emerging markets, capacity expansions, trade legislation, and sustainability issues. Finally, the implications for market pulp suppliers are evaluated.